This month’s Economic Review includes:

• Revised projections released last month by both the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund suggest the UK economy is now set to avoid #recession this year. The BoE’s latest forecast predicts the economy will grow by 0.25% across the whole of 2023, a significant upgrade from February’s prediction of a 0.5% contraction
• Following its latest meeting, which concluded on 10 May, the BoE’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a 7-2 majority to raise Bank Rate by a further 0.25 percentage points. This was the 12th consecutive increase, taking rates to 4.5%, their highest level in almost 15 years
• Official retail sales statistics showed a slightly stronger-than-expected increase in sales volumes during April while survey evidence points to modestly rising levels of optimism within the retail sector
• The latest batch of labour market statistics from the Office for National Statistics suggests a further softening in the jobs market with a rise in the rate of unemployment and another fall in the number of job vacancies.